Prop 19, Initiative to Legalize Marijuana in California, Favored 47% – 38% in New Pol

Discussion in 'Marijuana News' started by oltex, Sep 23, 2010.

  1. Prop 19, Initiative to Legalize Marijuana in California, Favored 47% – 38% in New Poll
    FDL / Jon Walker / 09,22,2010

    The ballot initiative Proposition 19, which would legalize, tax and regulate marijuana in California, still leads by nine points in the latest poll from PPP:

    PPP (PDF) (9/14-16)
    Proposition 19 would legalize marijuana under California but not federal law. It would permit local governments to regulate and tax commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana. Will you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?
    Yes 47%
    No 38%
    Undecided 14%

    The good news is that Yes on Prop 19 still has that fairly large nine-point margin over No on Prop 19. This is larger than we saw in the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which found it 47 percent yes -43 no.

    There are, however, two worrying signs: one is that the ballot measure is polling just below 50 percent, which is generally considered a danger zone for ballot measures. Undecideds tend to break against a ballot questoins. When they don't fully understand or know enough about a proposition, voting “no” to keep things as they currently are tends to be the default choice. I suspect given the very high profile of Prop 19 and the fairly simple-to-understand point at the heart of it, that wouldn't be as big an issue for this ballot measure. For example, another high-profile ballot measure, the 2008 anti-gay marriage Prop 8, didn't see undecideds break sharply to vote “no.”

    The second concern is that since July, when PPP last polled this question, support for Prop 19 has fallen modestly from 52 percent yes, 36 percent no.

    The poll did find evidence that having Prop 19 on the ballot is actually making young voters enthusiastic about voting for it. From Tom Jensen:

    A big question to contemplate in California is whether the marijuana initiative is helping to stifle the enthusiasm gap Democrats are dealing with in most other states, particularly when it comes to intended turnout from young voters. We're seeing a much higher level of interest in this election from voters under 45 in California than in most places and those folks are highly favorable toward Proposition 19, planning to vote for it by a 54/34 margin.
    Those same young voters are fueling much of the lead for Jerry Brown in the Governor's race and Barbara Boxer in the Senate- if Brown and Boxer win they may have the marijuana initiative to thank for driving turnout from folks who would otherwise have been drop off voters in a midterm. We'll do more research on what races are bringing people out the next time we poll California.

    Young voters are very supportive of marijuana legalization. The poll found likely voters 18-29 years old favored Proposition 19, 67 percent to 24 percent. If young people turnout in larger-than-expected numbers to vote for Prop 19, my analysis shows that would significantly increase its chances of passing. Given that support for Prop 19 is hovering right around 50 percent, the size of the youth turnout could easily make the difference between success and failure.
  2. Really hope that November 2nd has a lot of us blades toking in celebration
  3. notice the 14% undecided, like the article says that the young people and the undecided will be the deciding factor. people who are undecided tend to vote no. the young people tend to not turnout to vote which is suggested by the article below.

    this article shows that 25% of voters 18-29 actually turnout. while 54% of voters above the age of 30 turnout, which will greatly affect whether prop 19 passes

    here is a very important pdf on california voters turnouts
    California Voters Turnout Facts Sheet

    this is from the OP's article pdf
  4. I still think that the added turnout of young voters will cause a solid win.And that many of the older voters will be voting yes,many more than any of the polls indicate,,,,,,,we will see,,,,in 45 days,,,,vote YES.
  5. I would tend to think that the undecided voters are those that will do more research and come to a better decision. And if they do enough research they will see the light. These people will see through all the BS that the non informed prohibition supporters are spewing. If we get half of those undecided we win big. I sad we and I live in Co.
  6. I come up with 38 days chief. Better to be early this time I guess, lol.
  7. why do you think stoners are looking for wedding dresses?
  8. ^ lol

    yeah i would hope that the undecided voters will do some research
  9. The real question about these poll numbers is how many of the people polled are registered voters...without that info the polls don't mean shit unfortionetly.
  10. i hope everyone in cali is doing hes best to make this pass ...
    remmber its not just about leglaize in Cali , this might be the start that will make other country follow .
  11. Hopefully...
  12. I think its pretty badass that people that don't even live in Cali are spreading Vote Yes stuff everywhere=p I really hope this thing passes, I might even consider liking the government for once!
  13. Lets hope this pulls through
  14. [​IMG]
    18 year olds can vote for it but cant buy if passed...

  15. Some of the more intelligent 18 to 20 year old will vote yes because at least then the legal use of marijuana will be in place when they turn 21,and as some have learned,everything changes with time. The 18 yr old that votes yes for legalization
    in Nov realize that it is possible that they could see the age limit lowered by the time they reach 21.
    And the chart does not say what percentage of the 18 to 29 are below 21. And what percentage of 18 to 29 that say no in a poll are going to bother to vote? For that matter,what percentage of the no voters across the board believe in prohibition enough to go vote to keep it in place?
    I think most of the yes voters will show up for the vote and most of the no votes won't.
    I still predict a 70% or more for 30%or less against on Nov 2nd because of the drive behind the yes vote.

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