Has Global Warming Stopped?: The Polar Vortex and the Case of the Missing Heat

Discussion in 'Science and Nature' started by DjSmokeBowls, Feb 8, 2014.

  1. There have been a number of people these days who have seriously questioned whether global warming has stopped. Events such as the recent Polar Vortex and the fact the average global temperature hasn't risen much in the last 16 years have furthered these doubts. So what's the deal?
    First let's talk about one of the biggest mysteries in climate science. That being the relatively stable average global temperature. In 1998 the average global temperature hit a record high but since then warming has stalled. Climate models predicted a rise of .21C per decade but only .04C was observed.
    Initially, this stalling was considered simple natural variability that would resolve itself but after persisting for years, scientists realized that it required an explanation. Some potential conclusions based on the data caused a bit of a stir amongst scientists. Despite this, the majority of scientists are cautious of evaluating models based on the relatively short-term abnormalities given that global climate change should be looked at over 50-100 years timescales.
    Scientists knew that heat was still being built up but didn't yet know where.
    Recently, evidence has pointed to the oceans. Specifically, the El Niño of 1997-98 which deposited an extremely large amount of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. Previously, factors such as a weak Solar Maximum and the presence of atmospheric aerosol particles were thought to play a large factor but were found to account for only about 20% of the hiatus. Scientist expect the hiatus to end and warming to resume in the next few years. More information about the particulars can be found in this article.
    Now let's take a look and see what the implications of the recent polar vertex in the context of global warming are. There are people that think the seemingly epic cold brought on by the polar vortex is highly unusual. In fact, temperatures during the polar vortex wouldn't be too out of place during the earlier parts of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The reason we considered the polar vortex so cold was that winters overall have gotten warmer and we've gotten fewer cold spells so that when one actually comes, it seems more out of place than it should.
    Analysis of national winter temperatures since 1900 show that cold extremes occurred on average every 4 years until recently. The average national temperature during the polar vortex dropped below 18 F for the first time in 17 years which is the longest such lapse by far. During the period between 1970 and 1989, there were 12 polar vortex-like events; by contrast, there have only been 3 such events since 1990. This clearly shows extreme cold snaps have become far less regular and that people have a very short weather memory.  
    People also seem to overlook the fact that there have been far more unusually warm days than cold ones. For example, since 2000 there were only 2 days that registered in the 100 coldest days in winter and 13 that registered in the 100 warmest days in winter. The seemingly record-breaking cold of the Polar Vortex was only the 55<sup>th</sup> coldest day since 1900.
    Another important point, which takes into account how the polar vortex works, is that while those of us in the contiguous United States were cold, people in Alaska were enjoying an unusually warm spell. This is because the arctic air which normally keeps Alaska frozen took a shorty trip south leaving the arctic region abnormally warm and the rest of the US freezing. There is evidence to suggest that the wandering of the arctic jet stream is being caused by global warming. More about the disruption of the arctic jet stream here.
    Americans are becoming weather wimps
    Polar Vortex does not disprove Global Warming
    Climate Change - The case of the Missing Heat

  2. Its not "global warming" it is global climate change which is characterized by extreme weather, droughts in regions that usually get a lot of rain and rain in places that dont get a lot. Its not just about warming, but many scientist do think over a long period if we keep releasing the amount of C02 that we are, then climate will slowly get warmer.IMO it will only get bad if the melting ice from the ice caps is able to fuck up thermohaline circulation in the oceans.
  3. Earth will kill us before we kill her. Warming trends, cooling trends....who gives a fuck. You wanna keep on being a slave to the Man? I say bring them shits on so we can topple their ivory towers and beat the shit outta the cops that show up to protect em!
  4. We are destroying the earths capacity to sustain human life at its current(rapidly expanding) level. I personally give a fuck because I dont want future generations to be living off of a bowl of rice a day because our generations didnt give a fuck.
    Fuck them. Let them eat RICE! It's not like they won't be miserable slaves to a corporate empire.
  6. I have no idea what your point is. I am specifically talking about global warming and it will get much worse than thermohaline cirulation.
    Cool, it only took two post for the topic to be derailed.
  7. old ice/earth/rock records show a cycling of weather from warmer to colder, like a sine wave.
    a tide has high and low points some are higher then others while low tides also vary...outside influences, as in NOT ON EARTH effect our weather this way as well (gravity/tidal forces effect air/land/sea)
    then we have tectonic movements, collision, subduction and polar shiftings....all in cycles.
    people have such a narrow view into the time cycles, we have been here on earth for a tic of the coo-coo clock compared to the earths age...(and there was/is a shit load of money made on both sides of the GW scare)
  8. You're welcome!
  9. My point is that we are not expierencing "global warming", we are experiencing global climate change. Global climate change will be much worse if the thermohaline circulation in the ocean is messed up because it will greatly effect weather patterns.
  10. They are calling it "climate change" because they predicted "global warming" for 30 years and it did not happen.
    I remember when it was all about the "coming ice age", also the "population explosion"(another farce).
    The fact that Alaska has oil means it was once a MUCH WARMER place to be.
    I am a skeptic.
  11. #11 DjSmokeBowls, Feb 8, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 8, 2014
    But we are experiencing global warming. Global climate change is simply a more general term that undoubtedly includes global warming. The Earth is warming which causes the climates around the world to change. Disruption of the thermohaline circulation would indeed be quite problematic but there's no way to know how bad.
    This is all well and good but it doesn't affect what I posted and certainly doesn't in any way refute the fact that the Earth is getting warmer. Everyone is aware that the Earth has cycles of warm and cold periods, what scientists have found is that the RATE of warming has drastically increased due to human influences. Also drop the political nonsense, this is the science section.
    Global Warming is happening, there is no doubt about this. Did you even read what I posted about the decreased number of cold spells and increased number of warm days in winter? What does Alaska being warmer a long time ago have to do with anything? Antarctica was also warm, does that disprove climate change?
    science section, really...then show all of it vs just your hand picked selections to support you opinion.
    I expressed that it is happening but not as a few chosen papers claim...a different opinion based on long term records is a problem?
    Lots of doubt on it...and off you go to the deep end to swim in hyperbole.
    I'll be at the beach..
    and ocean circulation change happens every time the tectonic plates (those continents we live on) move into new alignments...(can't deny physics models)
  14. I read your post further and got my answer.
  15. This isn't personal to me. I didn't come up with these ideas. What do you think I'm hiding? If there is something specific you'd like to dispute and you have evidence to back it up, I'm all ears.
    Truthfully, I don't think you really understand what you posted and how that relates to what I posted. That information is already known and taken into account by climate scientists or completely irrelevant. Nothing about your post was contrary to what I posted.
    i have no need to dispute and prove a negative, nobody has proven it exist...
    if humans had any effect it was from the hot air the global warming cults are full of.
  17. global warming is based on trends of data spanning decades. one year doesnt derail the theory, its just an anomaly. 
  18. Human effects on climate have thus far not been proven to be signifficant. In fact the more we look, the more we realize how insignificant we are.

    Warming alarmists are pretty arrogant thinking humans are some sort of destroyers of worlds

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  19. Try 7 going on 8 years.

    The midevil warming period was even hotter and they didnt even know what co2 was

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