Thanks for your post...lots of good information! Unfortunately there is no way we can prove this point one way or another. I still feel that it was the feds' statement that was the turning point in the campaign, with enough "fence sitters" being converted to "definite no" voters once Holder issued his warning. This is based solely on my perception of the events leading up to the election - no hard facts. An argument can be made that Prop 19 was approved in areas of the state that have the highest concentration of dispensaries (So. Cal, Bay Area) while it was rejected in less densely populated areas where dispensaries are few and far between. It's not a particularly strong argument, and it cannot be used to prove the point statistically, but it may indicate that the dispensary owners did not have as much influence on the vote as some believe. In any case I think it is undeniable that dispensary owners and growers may have hurt the cause, it's just not clear to what degree (at least to me). And your point about "inter-scene fighting" is particularly salient.
We haven't had a med shop in town for over 5 years. Why did my county still vote down prop 19. Can't blame that on the greedy club owners can we.