As it was, sustainably, for quite some time: Hunter - Gatherer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Hunting and gathering was the ancestral subsistence mode of Homo, and all modern humans were hunter-gatherers until around 10,000 years ago. History of the world - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Human prehistory begins in the Paleolithic Era, or "Early Stone Age". Later, during the Neolithic Era (New Stone Age), came the Agricultural Revolution (between 8000 and 5000 BCE) in the Fertile Crescent, where humans first began the systematic husbandry of plants and animals.[4][5][6] ____ That being said, man was at the top of the roost for damn near near... 6,000 years as hunter gatherers. Even considering the length of time we practiced agriculture, the world never boasted more than 2 billion people. Right around the mid to late 1800's, man kind mastered it's own demise: Industry, oil and antibiotics. Since then, that 2 billion people has become nearly 7 billion, with no sign of slowing. We've completely fucked, in less than 300 years, the planet that humanity has enjoyed and relied upon for more than 12,000 years... and that's just the period we consider prehistory to now. I believe, more accurately, we've been here closer to 120,000 years all told. All things considered, give me a spear and some god damned buffalo to chase.
Yes, and several like it. Highly recommended. What hit me the hardest though was The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight - perhaps mostly because of the time in my life when I read it, having my fist child on the way. Very clear, concise presentation of all of these ideas. Very depressing as well.
lolno I also don't subscribe to this notion that we're all fucked in X years regardless of population.
You just don't understand exponential function. That's ok though, you don't need to believe in gravity either. To clarify, I don't think "we'll all be fucked". Only like 3/5 of us all. That's about how much life the food created by natural sunlight can sustain. Starvation is starvation no matter what you believe in or who you pray to. The definition of modern agricultural can accurately be modified to read: The conversion of petroleum to food using barren land as a substrate. Strange, but I read somewhere about viable biofuel production from hemp... something about hemps staggering bioavailability... makes for a good energy source. But I digress....
I understand "exponential function" and "believe in gravity". Also, we don't need natural sunlight to make food. Think about the increase in computing power over the last 15 years. Look at the progress being made with regard to agriculture and increasing crop output in the last 2 decades. To think that you can predict 100+ years into the future is silly at best.
Computing power comes from electricity. Electricity comes from coal, another petroleum source, finite. Some comes from natural gas, also a petroleum source, finite. Agriculture depends on 7 gallons of petroleum per 3 square yards of soil - then they need machinery to harvest and trucks to drive it to you - petroleum. Then you get in your car, made from and of mostly petroleum, to drive to your grocery store, using petroleum fuel as well. Did you get dressed first? Your clothes are made from petroleum. Did you unwrap your produce? The bags are petroleum. Did you refrigerate anything? Refrigerant depends upon petroleum for motors and for the compression, as well as the formation of the tanks. Did you pay with a cred card? It's petroleum too. Actually, the scarriest aspect of it all, in my mind, isn't food. It's medicine. Can you imagine a hospital without plastic? Even worse, antibiotics cannot be manufactured without MASSIVE amounts of petroleum. Research the process.. it's nothing short of amazing. IRREPLACEABLE Things we need petroleum for: Plastics, Antibiotics, Transportation, Refrigeration, Computing.... the list goes on for ever. All the things you mention show, even more clearly, our present danger. Starvation begins somewhere on the down-slope you see below. I don't know where, just that it will be. I don't know for who, just know it will be a lot. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
Clearly we can't use something other than petroleum to produce those things. Especially not within the next hundred years. Peak oil has been thoroughly debunked on this site several times.
Even if oil was finite scarcity would transition us toward cheaper alternatives long before it's gone.
You can't debunk peak oil. It happened. It's a fact with all resources finite. What has been debunked are the timelines pushed by the hardcore peak-oilers who think it will be the beginning of the rapture or some shit. What has been debunked is the World War III theories and the mass die-off theories (which I do sometimes play upon often to push my biodesiel agenda). You can't debunk the fact that a steady drain on a finite resource will cause a curved-shaped graph. THAT is "Peak Oil". You know, they debunked that the world is round several times as well. Don't take my word for it... I'm just some asshole on a drug forum: Video parts 1 through 4 of Arithmetic, Population and Energy - a talk by Al Bartlett on the impossibility of exponential growth on a finite planet No fear mongering. Just a super-huge math nerd. You know, that math stuff?
Prove. We don't even know the amount of reserve on the most important feild on the planet - the Arabs won't tell us. It was estimated by the EIA that it would take over 20 years (in good economic times) to retrofit our country for biofuel. Mainly because petroleum is anhydrous. No water. Biofuels will rust metal, rendering our current (entire) distribution system useless for the general purpose. The process of rendering biofeuls anyhdrous is more energy intensive than the retrofitting. So we don't know how we'll afford it. We don't know when we'll need it. We don't know how we'll do it. But God-Damn it, we're Americans! American ingenuity! Someone, somewhere, somehow, will just do it when it needs to be done. That summarizes my opinion of American Ingenuity. I have more faith in our European counterparts, who don't presently have the entire middle east held hostage for.... why are we there? It's NOT oil, that much has been made clear by debunking Peak Oil, right?
It's economics. The price of oil will rise as demand exceeds supply, or perceived supply. The Arabs don't need to tell us how much they have, prices will. Energy will still become more expensive than it is today, but the cheapest choice will reign supreme. If the oil supply dwindles then the other forms of energy can compete. It's not like one day we'll be like, "Oh shit, there's no more oil!" Pretty much. The incentives and technology to develop alternatives aren't quite there yet, and if they are they wouldn't be able to compete with coal/oil. I have more faith in our Asian counterparts. They are freeing up their markets instead of restricting them with increasing levels of central planning as we have been for the past century. We are in the middle east to secure our corporate interests, whether that be control of resources or preserving dollar hegemony.
I really appreciate the quality of your reply. There isn't much I can say to debate, other than Economics is man made, where as oil is not. I will only venture to debate the point I've quoted above. And to all, this is only in the spirit of passionate debate. We all know that no one knows how this shit will ultimately pan out. My point is that, if I am wrong, well you can all roll a collective doobie and make fun of me. If you are wrong, my children may starve. That being said I believe the whole argument, at very least, warrants some additional investigation. Now on to my rebuttal: -Assume that we have isolated one (1) single-celled, petroleum-drinking bacteria. -Assume that this bacteria reproduces at the the rate of once per minute, as do it's offspring. -Assume we place this bacteria in a glass of petroleum at EXACTLY 11:00am. -Assume the glass will be empty and all the bacteria will be dead by EXACTLY 12:00pm When will the glass be half empty? Answer? See next post.
The answer is 11:59am. In the last minute. That's right. In the final minute, exponential function pushes the depletion of petroleum to completion - it is doubling we are talking about here - you understand exponential function, right? Final Question: How many bacteria will be concerned at 11:57 when the glass is 97% full? Final Answer: None. At 11:59pm we say, "Oh shit! No more oil!" No matter how much money you throw into the hole in the ground, no more oil will appear. That's the power of Economics.
And what an amazing invention that is. Show me one dictator, one central planner, one socialist, communist or collectivist that can take barren land, petroleum and turn it into a food source? They can't. Only capitalism can do that. It also gives you the privilege and freedom to not like that people are making babies and want to eat. If hemp is economically viable there is some greedy bastard out there who wants to make $$$$ off it. The problem is that some central planner, dictator, socialist, communist or collectivist raised hell in government to make sure they couldn't. Oh nos! Are you wearing clothing right now? Do you run your computer on electricity? Do you drive a car? Do you shop at a grocery store? Do you have a refrigerator? You are completely free not to participate in any of these things. Literally no one holds a gun to your head or forces you to do any of that. You chose to do it. You may not like the circumstances, but unlike the state, business is not holding you hostage. Would it be better if we never had those things? No, those things are definitely replaceable. Just because no one has invented or innovated their replacements yet does not make it impossible. Nothing is stopping you from doing that, either
Again I say, If I am wrong, we can roll a doob and laugh about it. If you are wrong, it won't be so pretty. It's easy to argue a sore point. It's easy to say that innovation and creativity will save the day. I'm sure the folks marching across the Horn of Africa wanted to argue against the possibility of starvation many moths ago as well. Unfortunately, a 1/4 of them are now dead. I make every effort possible to conserve energy. I'm an IT guy who regularly gets roped into capacity and power planning for our redundant datacenters. My art, Jiu-Jitsu, is based on economy, efficiency and leverage. My only major run-in with the law was over my efforts to turn our paper trash into Shiitake mushrooms. One of my many green projects: Check it, I love to show it off: Shiitake BRF Growlog Complete - Many Large Pictures. - Mushroom Cultivation - Shroomery Message Board Honestly, I don't usually wear much other than shorts unless I'm in the office. I carpool to work. I use energy efficiency toxic-ass lightbulbs and all the good shit. God's man! Even my portable vape has a rechargeable battery pack!!! Yes sir, I live by what I preach. I only fear for the future of my children and I will continue to believe, in spite of all the great factual info here to the contrary (where?), that this will be the biggest issue of our children's generation. I can't pin my hopes on the idea that someone will magically fix this overnight. I see great promise in hemp-based fuels, to get this back on track...
If food is anyone's concern: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV9CCxdkOng]1 MILLION pounds of Food on 3 acres. 10,000 fish 500 yards compost - YouTube[/ame] 1 MILLION pounds of Food on 3 acres. 10,000 fish 500 yards compost - YouTube