McCain Set to Win by Landslide!

[Tray Dub]

Well, I've explained this bullshit away before, if anyone chooses to continue to believe it, be my guest. But this is very incorrect. We'll just see in a couple weeks, how bout that.

[Adult_Toke]

How hilarious it is that the Republican's last hope is a tidal wave of closet racists suddenly manifesting themselves on election day. Do Republicans really want to win this way? Is this the mandate McCain really wants?

The only people who will be surprised on November 4th will be people who are completely out of touch with reality (a prerequisite for being a conservative these days) and believe delusional garbage like this. Or me, if Obama gets 370+ electoral votes.

As far as the Bradley Effect goes, there were instances in which Obama actually over-performed in the primaries relative to where the polls said he was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley...Bradley_Effect

After the Super Tuesday elections of February 5, 2008, political science researchers from the University of Washington found trends suggesting the possibility that with regard to Obama, the effect's presence or absence may be dependent on the percentage of the electorate that is black. The researchers noted that to that point in the election season, opinion polls taken just prior to an election tended to overestimate Obama in states with a black population below eight percent, to track him within the polls' margins of error in states with a black population between ten and twenty percent, and to underestimate him in states with a black population exceeding twenty-five percent. The first finding suggested the possibility of the Bradley effect, while the last finding suggested the possibility of a "reverse" Bradley effect in which black voters might have been reluctant to declare to pollsters their support for Obama or are underpolled. For example, many general election polls in North Carolina and Virginia assume that blacks will be 15% to 20% of each state's electorate; blacks were around a quarter of each state's electorate in 2004.[65][66] This high support effect has been attributed to high black voter turnout in the primaries in those states. Blacks supported Obama by margins often exceeding 97%. By comparison, with only one exception, in each state with inaccurate opinion polls for the Democratic contest involving Obama, those same polls accurately predicted the outcome of that state's Republican contest, featuring only white candidates.[67]

At best, the significance of the Bradley Effect is limited to certain regions and not the country as a whole.

[Perpetual Burn]

BTW, this thread isn't about the "Bradley Effect." It's about the consistent election polling bias in the Democratic favor over the past five elections.

Maybe try reading the article... ?

[Tray Dub]

Originally Posted by Perpetual Burn

BTW, this thread isn't about the "Bradley Effect." It's about the consistent election polling bias in the Democratic favor over the past five elections.

Maybe try reading the article... ?

If you're talking to me (I don't think you are, but maybe), I have reasons for thinking the polling is in McCain's favor, other than just past elections. Just because it happened before doesn't mean it's happening again. You'd have to have reasons for thinking that it's happening this time.

I have to admit that I haven't read it yet though. I will later.

[stoned budda]

Originally Posted by Tray Dub

If you're talking to me (I don't think you are, but maybe), I have reasons for thinking the polling is in McCain's favor, other than just past elections. Just because it happened before doesn't mean it's happening again. You'd have to have reasons for thinking that it's happening this time.

I have to admit that I haven't read it yet though. I will later.

What are your reasons for thinking the polling is in McCains favor?

And just because it happened before doesnt mean it wont happen again.

[Tray Dub]

Originally Posted by stoned budda

What are your reasons for thinking the polling is in McCains favor?

And just because it happened before doesnt mean it wont happen again.

This is gonna be kind of a long one. Hope you read it all.

Most of the polls don't take into account the huge amounts of enthusiasm that surrounds Obama. Their polls of likely voters are often based on a voter's history of voting (like if they voted in '00 and '04, they are a likely voter), but since Obama has created so much more enthusiasm than Gore or Kerry, this is faulty. Not only that, but there's much less enthusiasm for McCain than there was for Bush in '00 or '04. Also, these polls do not include enough blacks and younguns, because those two groups tend to not come out and vote. But since there is a black man, blacks will come out and vote. That's been documented in other elections similar to this. When there's a black running for an office that has never been held by a black person, blacks vote in much, much bigger numbers. And since 97% of blacks favor Obama, that's really important. The youth vote isn't as reliable in this election, but he has still generated more excitement in kids (who tend to vote Democrat) than anyone has in a long time. A lot more will most likely show up to the polls than they have before. But since they haven't in the past, a lot of polls don't call many of them. Another factor is Obama's organization. He has one of the best ground games in presidential history. He is extremely organized, much more so than Kerry or Gore (or McCain). That's how he raised $150 million last month, from a grassroots organization (the average donation was less than $100, so it wasn't just huge donations). And that organization means he will get way more of his supporters to the polls. And that's not taken into account at all in the polls.

I know it COULD happen again (duh), but there's no reason to think it will. At least not that I've seen. If you could give me the reason(s) you think the polls are inflating Obama's lead, I'd be interested in hearing it.

[SupremeBeam]

We've had 8 years of failed bush policies, lets try obama out and see if democracy runs better with a democratic president. The only chance McCain has is the racist democrats voting for him, and thats fucked up.

[Adult_Toke]

Originally Posted by Perpetual Burn

BTW, this thread isn't about the "Bradley Effect." It's about the consistent election polling bias in the Democratic favor over the past five elections.

Maybe try reading the article... ?

The article is complete crap, even more so than the Bradley Effect these days. For its first example it uses exit polls for Bush v. Kerry. Exit polls are entirely different than polls taken before the election. They are not scientific. Completely different category and the author is either stupid or dishonest for using that example.

For its Bush v. Gore example it only cites one poll, and it isn't even from one of the more trusted and respected pollsters like Rasmussen or Gallup.

http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20

Most of the polls in 2000 accurately reflected the extremely tight race. The polls which showed Gore ahead of Bush showed the lead within the poll's margin of error, and since Gore won the popular vote in 2000, it would make sense for the polls to show him with a slight lead because of the way polls are conducted. Same story with the 1996 election example that site uses. Either that or they didn't even cite examples.

If you read the polls one by one, you don't know how to read the polls.

I stopped reading after the 1992 election example, because it's obvious this site is pure garbage.

[stoned budda]

Originally Posted by SupremeBeam

We've had 8 years of failed bush policies, lets try obama out and see if democracy runs better with a democratic president. The only chance McCain has is the racist democrats voting for him, and thats fucked up.

I see so what you are essentially saying is that anyone who would vote Mccain must be racsist. Let me guess first time voter?

[Khanine]

we all see how that worked!

[hendrix]

Originally Posted by AugustWest

shit.. lets hope Obama wins so there will be no more wars!!

my thoughts exactly

[Dickie4:20]

Oh ya they'll be war...of course, some ppl dont think so though.

[AK Infinity]

Originally Posted by stoned budda

As i've been saying i dont nessesarily believe the polls. Its no secret the media is in the bag for Obama, and polls can easily be manipulated.

Snicker, snicker...

[TheDudeAbides]

Cmon folks, no need to go nose rubbing.

[Bank404]

why not? all that shit talking those McSame's threw at everyone?