How likely do you think a country-to-country nuclear launch is actually on Earth currently? Would any nation openly nuke another? Is Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ever an option a government would choose? Personally, I believe it is far more likely to have a dirty bomb go off somewhere as the biggest act of terrorism ever committed. The desire to kill that many people for any cause would have to come from an extremist fringe group or individual and is very unlikely to be ever supported by an actual nation's government. Maybe Iran and Israel perhaps but even there I don't think they'd want it badly enough to cause their own destruction. For all his bravado, I also don't think Kim would ever check himself out of power and life by nuking SKorea. The big powers USA/China/Russia etc simply cannot ever launch on one another unless they are willing to end the species, so again, you'd need that madman touch to get it done. An even remotely sane functioning government will not do it. So, while the threat is obviously very serious, how likely do you think a country to country strike actually is?
I think all nuke countries need to chill a little...... I have work to do ... end of world scenarios don't fly today ;-)
I don't think a nuke launch is currently very likely though if I'd give a 50-50 at best for one occurring over the next 50 years. It's just matter of time before the religious lunatics finally have a tool up to the task of doing Allah's biddings. And Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't offer the tiniest of restraints - in fact, guaranteed destruction is the opposite of a deterrent for that category of suicidal-genocidal fool.
There are a number of renegade countries with nuclear arsenals who are a cause for concern. Countries like Israel, Pakistan and North Korea who refuse to let international weapons inspectors in, who refuse to disclose what kind of nuclear weapons and other wmd's they are holding. With lunatics like Kim and Netanyahu with their fingers on the button the world will never be safe from the threat of nuclear war.
In modern wars its more likely a government would use a proxy terror group to deliver the nuke and use it as an exscuse to start a war -Yuri
As has been seen before, the most likely use of nukes would be between india and pakistan. There have been several dicey situations in the past, and pakistan doesnt hesitate to say that they would initiate a first strike nuclear attack on india in the event of an indian invasion of their territory. In their mind, they need them because of the superiority of the indians
Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't see them using one even if India were to invade. Obviously, it is a great talking point/threat to an opposing nation, but actually nuking them wouldn't improve the situation for the launcher whatsoever. They would just get nuked back while catching the condemnation of the entire free world. Threats I can see all day, which is 100% what nukes have been used for ever since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Actual open launch from a government, not likely unless they went rogue.
Honestly I don't think it will ever happen. If a group or country were to launch one I feel the rest of the world would basically destroy them. Although that being said it seems like a lot of decisions of war take a long time to make. And if someone were to launch nuclear weapons, no matter how quick the worlds response the damage will have been done. But for now the US military will just use Afghan buildings for target practice.(not to get off topic)
A suicide bomber tries to take as many people with them as they possibly can and they know without a doubt they will be destroyed. Why would they turn their backs on the biggest prize of all?
Nuclear/atomic bombs have been used as a weapon by one nation only - the US. No country or group has used nuclear weapons since. Instead of worrying about whether this group or that group might acquire nuclear weapons i am more concerned about the countries that do have said weapons particularly rogue countries who refuse to disclose their arsenal or indeed let international inspectors in to see how they are stored. North Korea, Pakistan and Israel are a far bigger threat than IS or al Qaeda. These rogue extremist countries which are all led by unstable loo la's are what worry me.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.†Albert Einstein
Agreed except Israel would never launch. Israel launching is the equivalent of the United States launching. The only way they would ever do this if they did not have military superiority, which is usually always the case.
What I find more interesting, if you would have a Nuke personally, who would you Nuke? Your neighbors, your ex-wife, racists, a country, a state ?? Let your imagination go wild, it's all fiction anyways //static.grscty.com//public/style_emoticons/default/passing-joint-smiley-emoticon.gif
Israel wont use nukes as long as they are trying to dip into us pockets Pakistan wont use nukes as long as Israel has nukes North Korea is another story, but hopefully they fear retaliation enough to not do it. Checks and balances is important. I personally think our greatest fear is a nnuclear power like the USA or Russia or even China, secretly providing a nuke to a terrorist group. A terrorist attack involving a nuke is literally the one opportunity the governments have been waiting for to justify a complete global totalitarian state. Its the final straw and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens in our lifetime. -Yuri
If your greatest fear is America, Russia, or China giving a nuke to a terrorist group you have nothing to worry about. That's never going to happen. Should someone actually give a nuke away and it was used it could be traced by it's signature back to it's country of origin. This is the nuttiest thing I've heard you say, ever. Also if the situation for Israel was so dire they popped a nuke, money would be the last thing they would be concerned about. Are you the real Yuri?
It is extremely likely; India and Pakistan, both nations are nuclear power, India has Nuclear Triad technology, Pakistan I believe is still developing the third installment last time I check. Trouble is both nation hate is beyond diplomatic reason; religion and economic to list a few. The source is Kashmir. Other western nations exploits this hate to gain a foothold, but nothing last forever I'm hoping their relationship does not cause a Nuclear Conflict.
The Third Installment of "the untold history of the United States" a documentary series directed by Oliver Stone, he makes the argument that in the impending use of the A - Bomb, that Japan was already seeking assistance to surrender without knowledge of such a weapon. The documentary gives great insight beyond countries, but the leader during the time period. Truman didn't have to drop the bomb, but did in any even as a test to his character. I can't say the same for Netenyahu, but given the environment in Israel and I do believe it can breed a particular electable leader in Israel that wouldn't retrain themselves when the opportunity present itself. http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/117924/Oli...
Doom's day clock says 3 minutes to midnight. Relevant to the op; http://thebulletin.org/timeline <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote' > 2015: "Unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.†Despite some modestly positive developments in the climate change arena, current efforts are entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have embarked on massive programs to modernize their nuclear triads-thereby undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties. "The clock ticks now at just three minutes to midnight because international leaders are failing to perform their most important duty-ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization." </blockquote>