Does anyone honestly think Amendment 64 in Colorado to legalize marijuana will pass?

If u were to bet your hard earned money on whether Amendment 64 in Colorado, Oregon Cannabis Tax Act in Oregon or I-502 in Washington will pass, do you think any of them will pass? Just 6 years ago a similar bill lost by a huge landslide of like 65% NO and only 35% YES. The polulation hasnt changed much in that little time. Too many people think its a gateway drug and that if its legal for adults to smoke weed, then somehow its gonna be legal for kids too and that theres gonna be stoned drivers everywhere crashing and killing people.

The whole thing conflicts with medical marijuana. Its like they gonna say something like "its already legal for medical use so why not legalize oxycontin for recreational use too" or "how much further loose should this get with all these pot shops everywhere". If something is legal only for sick people, it doesnt really sound right to just say lets legalize it for everyone. Its as if legalizing it for recreational use cheapens or makes real medical patients somehow worthless. They couldnt even get something like this passed in California 2 years ago. As liberal as California is, even the voters there didnt want to legalize marijuana. Maybe the drug legalizers should try getting something like this in British Columbia on a ballot there. There simply isnt enough support for legalizing drugs.

What do you think? Yes or No?

Edited by Vollont, 22 July 2012 - 02:36 AM.

California didn't lose by a landslide, it was very close. I actually registered to vote in 2010 just to vote for prop 19 even though I smoke maybe once a year. If 19 was on the ballot in 2008, the presidential election year, I feel it would've possibly done better since there was a large amount of young voters going to the polls. I would put money on amendment 64 passing. It will be close, like prop 19 was, but I think the majority will vote in favor of it. There needs to be a flood of mj exposure in Colo from now until November. The more normalized it is, the more likely it is that this will pass. Once the taboo aspect is gone, it won't be a big deal anymore.

The national polls are pretty close to only 50% in favor of legalization for recreational use. The state's votes will probably be as close as this. It is going to come down to the culture of each state, and the effectiveness of the pro-legalization movement to get the word out and vote.

CA's vote was razor thin. CO's last initiative in 2006 was 58/42, which is a pretty big spread, but remember that was six years ago and both these votes happened on non-election years (where turn out of young voters is statistically lower).

Polls show promise for CO and WA's initiatives, while OR's seems like it might be a bit of an uphill climb. It's also important to note that CO's initiative is supported by the state's Democratic party (CO is a fairly liberal state) and AFAIK is not being opposed by any major group (besides the no campaign obviously), though that could easily change. All three of these states have medical marijuana and they are all fairly liberal, so I'd say we have a decent chance of winning.

But these initiatives are going to come down to how the campaigns are run. Polls consistently showed that Prop 19 in California was winning until around October, when the campaign really heated up. It's pretty clear looking at the polls that the opposition was able to outcampaign supporters and caused a shift in public opinion, though it's important to note that most of the late polls underestimated support (October polls showed a support level of about 41%, while the final result was 48%).

Yes, I think it's going to pass in CO and possibly WA and OR. While you're starting multiple threads on basically the same subject and referencing historical initiatives, why not include everything else that has gone down in the past couple of years besides Prop 19 not passing? Need somewhere to start? How about things like:

1) 50,000 dead bodies in Mexico
2) New president in Mexico
3) Several south and central american leaders calling for an end to the war on drugs
4) Cities are going bankrupt and can't afford to keep up the effort against drugs
5) Michelle Leonhart getting her ass handed to her in what could be the first of many congressional hearings
6) Many people have now experienced what I predicted if Prop 19 didn't pass - the feds moved in for the kill on MMJ
7) People are pissed at Holder, Leonhart and Obama for the raids
8) Pat Robertson endorsing legalization
9) Multiple former leaders and law enforcement officials from around the world calling for legalization

A lot can change in two years and a lot HAS changed in two years. The world simply isn't the same as it was in 2010. Since 2010, we've had the economy slide further into the abyss, the Occupy protests have happened, and more and more people are becoming aware that the government just simply isn't acting in their best interest. The Occupy protests were huge and the definitely shifted the social climate in this country. We'll see how November turns out.

I have several friends in Seattle who have never registered to vote until this year, and I doubt they're alone. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but we just have to stay positive and keep reminding our friends to register and then actually bother to vote. I'm convinced that in California, there were enough people sitting on their couches getting high on poll day thinking "my one vote doesn't matter" to have pushed prop 19 over the edge.

I think they could pass by a razor thin margin. However, just like medical marijuana bills, how many of those have sat idle as the "battle" continued in the courts for decades sometimes? The "will of the people" seems to have little to no bearing on anything political these days. With big pharma licking their chops in anticipation of their profits, and a heaping helping of "hero worship" which has pervaded our society pertaining to police and their greedy union ranks, it's gonna be a tough row to hoe.

I think Colorado will!

I think they could pass by a razor thin margin. However, just like medical marijuana bills, how many of those have sat idle as the "battle" continued in the courts for decades sometimes? The "will of the people" seems to have little to no bearing on anything political these days. With big pharma licking their chops in anticipation of their profits, and a heaping helping of "hero worship" which has pervaded our society pertaining to police and their greedy union ranks, it's gonna be a tough row to hoe.

Lol, i like that expression

I have a lot of hope for Colorado, hope it passes through.

I have a lot of hope for Colorado, hope it passes through.

I live in Colorado and I have been doing my best to convince my friends to vote yes to amendment 64.

I think colorado has a very very good chance of passing this year. Look at the upward trend in the polls. AND...

California missed legalizing marijuana with their prop 19 by 3%, when they voted it was 2 years ago and a non-election year.

In those two years a lot of word has spread about how there are far less dangers of marijuana than previously thought, and this year we have an election (which statistically shows more voters turn up).

Also Colorado has the advantage because Amendment 64 is supported by the Colorado democratic party.


I would say about an 80% chance of passing

I hope that movie 'The Culture High' comes out late october. That would be a huge help.

There seems to be plenty of things in place to help amendment 4 pass in Colorado so I think it has a fair chance of passing. And form the looks of it Washington's bill may have a fair chance as well. Oregon is also working on passing a industrial hemp bill as well so it will be interesting to see which if not both of those in Oregon pass.

Yes..

I hope that movie 'The Culture High' comes out late october. That would be a huge help.

I hadn't heard of that until now.

Looks interesting. I see they made their goal too which terrific, had I known earlier and I wasn't on such a tight budget I would have certainly donated for this. The Union was a good documentary.

For those who haven't heard about it.

[ame][/ame]

Edited by FRANKMJ, 26 July 2012 - 07:56 PM.