The Statistical Odds of Random Scientific Events

[morphyx]

An interesting article I came across. Really makes you wonder considering all the factors and variables that would have to come into play. Kinda long though.

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What Are The Odds?

What are the chances that this creation developed into the detail and harmony we see and need for life to continue on earth as it is today? Evolutionists claim that it all just happened by chance. The evolutionist, progressive creationist, theistic evolutionist, gap theorist, or whatever other name you might place upon theory suggests that a primordial soup existed with just the right conditions and by chance the first building blocks for life appeared. Some of these believe that God placed the first building blocks for life into the soup and then sat back and watched the chance evolution take place.

So what about this chance, could it have all happened by chance.

In my pocket I have 10 quarters numbered one through ten. Of these quarters, They are all exactly the same to the touch. The numbers written upon them can not be felt. There are no distinctive blemishes. As much as possible they are exactly the same.

What are the odds or chances that I can reach into my pocket and pull out the coin numbered one on the first try?

The odds of my pulling out each quarter in order one after the other, placing the preceding coin back into my pocket after drawing it out will help you to understand the odds of our world evolving through the processes of evolution.

1. The Quarter Numbered 1, 1 in 10 – The Earth’s Rotation

Consider the Rotation of the Earth. And as you do I reach into my pocket to pull out coin number one, a 1 in 10 chance that I will pull out the right coin the first time. What coin did I grasp this time?

a. 1000 Miles per hour at the Equator - The circumference of the Earth at the equator is 25,000 miles. The Earth rotates in about 24 hours. Therefore, if you were to hang above the surface of the Earth at the equator without moving, you would see 25,000 miles pass by in 24 hours, at a speed of 25000/24 or just over 1000 miles per hour. - http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/as...s/970401c.html

b. The earths slowing rotation – According to a NASA scientist. Astronomers can measure this very precisely now that they have atomic clocks to provide a non-celestial time standard for comparison. The length of the day is increasing by 0.0015 seconds every century, of which about 0.0007 seconds per century has to do with the tidal breaking of the Moon. As a result of this, the Moon's orbit must also increase so that the

Moon is slowly getting farther and farther from the Earth by a few centimeters per year or so ( my estimate!). As this process continues, it is predicted that in billions of years the lunar month will increase to about 47 days from its current 27.3 days. But by that time, the Sun itself will have begun to evolve into a red giant, which will upset the Earth-Moon system somewhat; especially if they are both engulfed by the Sun's expanding atmosphere! - http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/q396.html

(1) Talk about needing more time – In my feeble, untrained mathematical equation, I calculated that if this decreasing speed remained consistent over the estimated 4.5 billion years of the earth existence then 4.5 billion years ago a day would have lasted only 5.25 hours.

c. Catastrophic Changes – According to a NASA website a change in the rotation axis of the Earth, or its spin rate would be catastrophic. The number of the seasons would change and their duration. If the rotation axis became parallel to the orbital plane, as for Uranus, we could have winter in the Northern hemisphere for 6 months followed by summer. The Sun would set on the entire Northern hemisphere and not rise again for 6 months. Less extreme axial tilts would produce a different pattern of seasons at each earth latitude.

Growing seasons and all of the natural cycles of the biosphere would be catastrophically affected, and if the change happened in a year or so, no living things, especially plants, would survive unmolested. There would not be enough time for plants to genetically alter their growing cycles. Large diebacks of plant ecosystems would occur followed by the animals that feed on the plants, and then the carnivores...etc etc. -

http://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/q278.html

2. The Quarter Numbered 2, 1 in 100 (Job 26.7) [– The Earth’s Axis – The earth sits on a tilt angle of 23 degrees 27 minutes which is approximately 23.45 degrees. www.newton.dep.anl.gov/asasci/env99/env154.htm

a. The Earth's rotation axis is not perpendicular to the plane in which it orbits the Sun. It's offset by 23.5 degrees. This tilt, or obliquity, explains why we have seasons and why places above the Arctic Circle have 24-hour darkness in winter and constant sunlight in the summer. But the angle is not constant - it is currently decreasing from a maximum of 24 degrees towards a minimum of 22.5 degrees. This variation goes in a 40,000-year cycle. http://www.livescience.com/environme...arth_tilt.html

b. This wabble in the earth’s axis represents less than a 1% shift in the earth’s axis. It has been suggested that if the earth were to shift its axis by a mere 5% that life as we know it on earth would be greatly affected and changed.

c. What are the chances that the earth would have just, by chance, sat at the 23.45 degree axis that now nurtures our existent upon its surface. Certainly far greater than the chance of my pulling out coin number 2 from my pocket, immediately following puling out coin number 1 and then replacing it in my pocket.

3. The Quarter Numbered 3, 1 in 1,000 – The Earth’s Atmosphere – The Earth’s Atmosphere is a thin layer of gasses that keeps our planet from freezing and protects us from harmful solar radiation.

a. Our atmosphere. Our atmosphere helps keep heat in (by absorbing some of the radiation re-radiated by the Earth), so you need a correction factor to our albedo. Without our thin layer of air, the surface temperature of the Earth would rapidly drop, freezing the oceans solid. This is called a "greenhouse effect", and is a very real occurrence. It's when things get out of control that you get a runaway greenhouse effect. Note also that the temperature on the surface of Venus should be about -20 Celsius (distance=1.1 x 1013 centimeters, albedo=0.65; although it's closer to the Sun its albedo is higher, so it should have about the same temperature as the Earth), but is actually in excess of 500 Celsius (over 900 Fahrenheit!). Should you worry about runaway greenhouse effect? Take a look at our closest neighbor. You tell me.

[http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/seasons.html]

b. Our atmosphere brings into light the many elements required to for an atmosphere just like our. Our atmosphere:

(1) Protects us for harmful radiation form our sun and space.

(2) Provides greenhouse effects that protect us from extreme heat and cold

(3) Provide oxygen for us to breath

c. These are a few of the more obvious factors surrounding our atmosphere. There is just as much chance that our atmosphere could have been caustic and harmful to life rather than supportive and nurturing to life.

Clearly the chances of our atmosphere developing into the nurturing atmosphere we enjoy are far greater than my reaching into my pocket and pulling out coin number 3 immediately following coin number 2, having place coin 2 back in my pocket. A 1 in 1,000 chance.

4. The Quarter Numbered 4, a 1 in 10,000– The Distance of the Earth away from the Sun - The Earth is 92,955,820.5 miles (149,597,892 kilometers).

a. Using trigonometry, astronomers now know that the “Astronomical Unit” = 92,955,820.5 miles (149,597,892 kilometers). This incredible degree of accuracy is possible because the speed of light is known very precisely and extremely accurate clocks are used to time the radar reflection. Radar can’t be used to determine the distance to the Sun directly because the Sun doesn’t have a solid surface to reflect the radar efficiently. http://www.astro-tom.com/getting_sta...n_distance.htm

b. It just so happens that scientists believe that the earth is positioned right on the inner margin of the region surrounding our sun that is capable of supporting life upon a planet the size of the earth. If the earth were to change its orbit by just a small percent of its distance from the sun, and were to move closer to the sun then the earth would no longer be an inhabitable planet.

c. What are the chances that the earth would be perfectly positioned in what our scientist have come to call the life supporting region of our solar system. Certainly far greater than the odds of my pulling coin number 4 out of my pocket immediately following coin number 3, having place coin number 3 back in my pocket. A 1 in 10,000 chance.

5. The Quarter Numbered 5, a 1 in 100,000 chance of pulling it out in proper order the first time – The Moon’s Orbit – The Moon’s orbit affects the tides in the oceans and our atmosphere.

a. The average distance between the Earth and the Moon is 238,900 or about 240,000 miles. http://www.guam.net/planet/scaleemprint.htm

b. One web page stated that the moon was a major contributor in the process of evolution, and claimed that without the moon evolution would have been entirely impossible.

c. So Just what are the chances of the moon just taking up its orbit and position around our earth, and just the right distance to create just the right conditions to possibly produce life and clearly to help sustain life on our earth? Clearly more than the possibility of my pulling out coin number 5, immediately following placing coins number 4 back in my pocket. A 1 in 100,000 chance.

6. The Quarter Numbered 6, a 1 in 1,000,000 – The Temperature of the Sun

a. The mean surface temperature of the Sun is 5506°C (9944°F). The mean core temperature of the Sun is 15,000,000°C(27,000,032°F). according to www.aj.com

b. For the sun to be at the stage in its development and in the scientific stages of a star at just the right time for life to be generated and sustained upon this planet we call home would be a far greater miracle than the odds of my pulling coin six out of my pocket. A 1 in 1,000,000 chance.

7. The Quarter Numbered 7, 1 in 10,000,000 [– The Earth’s Magnetic Fields – There is more scientific debate about the earth’s magnetic fields then one can read in a weeks time. It seems that everyone who writes about the magnetic fields has something else to add to the argument.

a. The Earth’s magnetic fields are depleting at a measurable and predictable rate. Modern measuring instruments and atomic clocks have made it possible to determine that these fields are depleting with such accuracy that clocks can be set accurately through the measurement of these fields.

b. Hence many of the multitudes of Creation Scientist such as Henry Morris and the associated scientist with Answers in Genesis have determined that the earth would have been incapable of supporting life a mere 30,000 years ago for the magnetic storms that would have been produced by the powerful magnetic fields.

8. The Quarter Numbered 8, 1 in 100,000,000 – The core of the earth which is molten magma spinning, turning and mixing beneath us, yet not melting away the mantle or the crust of the earth and still developing just the right environment to cause a dead planet to come to life by causing waters to flow beneath us and various elements to interact. What are the chances of the core developing in such a way as to produce or support life on earth.

9. The Quarter Numbered 9, 1 in 1,000,000,000 – Water to form the oceans and it being of such a consistency so as to produce and support life on earth. There is evidence of water on Mars, identified by the obvious erosion marks on the face of the planet however the conditions of the planet do not allow for surface water nor water that can support continuing life.

10. The Quarter Numbered 10, 1 in 10,000,000,000 – For the earth to have land masses with all of the ingredients in place to produce and support life. For the soil to be of just the proper ph level so that it is nurturing to life rather than toxic to life. Actually, each individual ingredient that comes together to form a fertile soil should probably be accounted as a separate and individual chance, hence the chance of each element forming and then for those elements to be mixed exactly right for that which we call earth would add hundreds or even thousands of quarters to our collection dramatically increasing the impossible odds of spontaneous life by mere chance.

11. Unimaginable odds, a mere 20 elements – What if I were to merely double the number of quarters in my pocket to 20. Then the odds of actually pulling all twenty of those quarters out of my pocket in proper order would be 1 in 1020, that is, 1:100,000,000,000,000,000,000

This is no different than the odds of having a mere twenty essential elements for the creation and support of life on earth. As we consider the cosmos, our environment, our world, our bodies, and all that is necessary for to nuture life on earth on must quickly realize that there are hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions of variables that must all be in place, all the time, in order for life to continue as we know it.

It seems equally obvious that for life in any form, even if we were to try and conceive of life in some other type of environment the odds of the elements necessary in some other unique environment supporting life are equally incredible. Hence, the claim that some how, just by sheer chance all that was necessary to develop and maintain life is no chance at all. It just could not have happened by chance.

B. What is the Obvious? – In this message I have but list ten mere necessities for the support of life on earth, and these ten are the most basic and obvious needs. If we were to begin to add the other multitudes of interactions and absolute requirements to support life on earth we would multiply the odds by billions of quarters added to our collection, but we are already exceeding any reasonable limit for the mere chance of the spontaneous production and support of life on earth. We have not touched on the necessity of oxygen, carbon dioxide, the miracle of photo synthesis, the presence of the suns warming radiation at just the right levels, the evaporation of the waters to form the clouds and wash our atmosphere with rain. We could go on and on and on and yet the well educated still wish to proclaim that it all happened by mere and impossible chance.

[nitrum]

Yeah, good point. There is no way it could have been by chance. I was actually thinking about something that is even MORE amazing. My Dad produces 400 billion sperm cells in his lifetime, and my Mom pass 300 unique eggs throughout her reproductive life. When I was born a single sperm cell had to unite with a single egg cell. That means the chance of me even existing is 1 in 120,000,000,000,000! And look at my license plate. It has three letters and three numbers. The chance that I have that license plate is 1 in 17,000,000! There is NO way it is chance!

Do you see why this argument is total shit?

Don't get me wrong. There are factors that are probably necessary for all forms of intelligent life (liquid water, organics, an atmosphere, a stable orbit) but other ones are only necessary for life on Earth.

I thought he was on the right track when he said:

"As we consider the cosmos, our environment, our world, our bodies, and all that is necessary for to nuture life on earth on must quickly realize that there are hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions of variables that must all be in place, all the time, in order for life to continue as we know it."

But then he quickly turns around and gives a conclusion that makes it sound like the conditions on Earth are necessary for intelligent life everywhere.

The Earth isn't perfectly fined tuned for us, we are perfectly fine tuned for the Earth. Of course the Earth is hospitible for humans. We evolved here! So how about life as we "don't" know it? I'm sure most aliens wouldn't find Earth very appealing.

[enevitable]

What are the chances?

Currently there is an estimated 500 billion galaxies in the universe. The milky way contains between 200 billion-400 billion stars. Of those stars, our star has 8 planets and 3 dwarf planets currently known.


Multiply all that together and theres a possible 2,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets in the universe.

Now tell me morphyx, do you have a cute quarter analogy for that? Because mathematically the odds are pretty good for us to be here like this.

Heres the drake equation

Got a quarter analogy for it too?

[scoobydooby67]

93.755% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[enevitable]

Originally Posted by scoobydooby67

93.755% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

yeah well 60% of the time it works everytime

[Key2gb]

Who needs big numbers when you're working with infinity?

[nitrum]

Originally Posted by Key2gb

Who needs big numbers when you're working with infinity?

Agreed. I personally don't think our universe is infinite, but I think there are infinite universes. So really I have no problem with low probabilities. But still, I think intelligent life HAS probably arisen numerous times in nearby galaxies.

[enevitable]

Originally Posted by nitrum

Agreed. I personally don't think our universe is infinite, but I think there are infinite universes. So really I have no problem with low probabilities. But still, I think intelligent life HAS probably arisen numerous times in nearby galaxies.

Theres no way it hasn't. And if you go with the ridiculous probabilities from the article Morphyx posted, you actually find that in the known(and we're not even taking multiple universes into account) that there can actually be millions upon billions of earth like planets that exist, with all the key features needed for life.


Also, I keep reading over some of the absolutely ridiculous statements I see in this article.

b. For the sun to be at the stage in its development and in the scientific stages of a star at just the right time for life to be generated and sustained upon this planet we call home would be a far greater miracle than the odds of my pulling coin six out of my pocket. A 1 in 1,000,000 chance.

Actually our sun is a main sequence star. Guess what, thats also the most common type of star. Guess what also? Low mass stars are also the most common, making our sun actually quite average.

b. Hence many of the multitudes of Creation Scientist such as Henry Morris and the associated scientist with Answers in Genesis have determined that the earth would have been incapable of supporting life a mere 30,000 years ago for the magnetic storms that would have been produced by the powerful magnetic fields.

Haha did anyone actually read this? Creation scientists think that life was incapable 30,000 years ago!! Hahahaha thats the most ridiculous statement ever

8. The Quarter Numbered 8, 1 in 100,000,000 – The core of the earth which is molten magma spinning, turning and mixing beneath us, yet not melting away the mantle or the crust of the earth and still developing just the right environment to cause a dead planet to come to life by causing waters to flow beneath us and various elements to interact. What are the chances of the core developing in such a way as to produce or support life on earth.

Also a laughable statement, reading up on how geology works helps to debunk this ignorance

This is no different than the odds of having a mere twenty essential elements for the creation and support of life on earth. As we consider the cosmos, our environment, our world, our bodies, and all that is necessary for to nuture life on earth on must quickly realize that there are hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions of variables that must all be in place, all the time, in order for life to continue as we know it

Another laughable statement

All in all this article was extremely disappointing. I only pulled out a few claims that were made, but honestly most of them are ridiculous.

I hate to sound like a dick here, but posting this stuff here really only perpetrates ignorance about actual science.

[nitrum]

I'll actually defend the article here for just a minute.

True the magnetic field thing was just plain retarded. And also the geology statement was really misinformed. But the Earths geology is actually quite unique. The author of the article doesn't know shit about science, but he had the right idea.

Earth does have a really active geology. If it wasn't for the convection and radioactive decay in the Earths mantle we wouldn't have plate tectonics. And without plate tectonics all dry land would have eventually eroded into the oceans. We'd be entirely covered in 2 miles of water.

But the thing about the crust melting is totally rediculous. Also underground water definitely isn't necessary for life.

[enevitable]

Originally Posted by nitrum

I'll actually defend the article here for just a minute.

True the magnetic field thing was just plain retarded. And also the geology statement was really misinformed. But the Earths geology is actually quite unique. The author of the article doesn't know shit about science, but he had the right idea.

Earth does have a really active geology. If it wasn't for the convection and radioactive decay in the Earths mantle we wouldn't have plate tectonics. And without plate tectonics all dry land would have eventually eroded into the oceans. We'd be entirely covered in 2 miles of water.

But the thing about the crust melting is totally rediculous. Also underground water definitely isn't necessary for life.

Earths geology is quite impressive from a galactic point of view, but honestly it all depends on planetary mass. The other planets in our solar system once had geologic activity too, but their mass was so low that they died off billions of years ago

[Smokin*Buddah]

Although i have not read all the way through the article I still believe that our existance is so short and insignifigant that the odds are not so low.

I mean out of billions and billions of years the chances of intellegent life existing on one geologic body out there for a couple of million of those years isnt that unbelievable to me.

[enevitable]

Originally Posted by Smokin*Buddah

Although i have not read all the way through the article I still believe that our existance is so short and insignifigant that the odds are not so low.

I mean out of billions and billions of years the chances of intellegent life existing on one geologic body out there for a couple of million of those years isnt that unbelievable to me.

It really does make you wonder, how many civilizations existed maybe 5 billion years ago, and died off so long ago?

The universe is so fucking big that statistical impossibilities are not impossible.

[Smokin*Buddah]

Originally Posted by enevitable

It really does make you wonder, how many civilizations existed maybe 5 billion years ago, and died off so long ago?

The universe is so fucking big that statistical impossibilities are not impossible.

agreed

[Jimbozu]

Just so you know, the reason everyone is calling your megnetic field theory retarted, isn't because it is just ridiculous, but because we understand that magnetic fields induced by giant spinning balls of liquid metal switch polarity quite often. The field is not constant by any means.

[morphyx]

Originally Posted by nitrum

The Earth isn't perfectly fined tuned for us, we are perfectly fine tuned for the Earth. Of course the Earth is hospitible for humans. We evolved here! So how about life as we "don't" know it? I'm sure most aliens wouldn't find Earth very appealing.

Good point. So, wouldn't it be realistic to logically assume the plausibility of finely tuned life forms existing on ANY planetary body including moons and stars? If life forms in fact "evolve" to the body mass' environment (as opposed to the inverse) there is no need for oxygen, water, vegetation, photosynthesis, etc. to necessarily be present since that would only apply to "our" life forms, right?

For example, a life form theoretically should have adapted to life on our moon that requires no oxygen, heat, water, or vegetation after all these billions of years. It certainly wouldn't be a life form that could survive on earth, but it would be a life form solely adapted to the moon; or venus; or mars;....or even the sun?

By the same logic, some sort of life form should have adapted to thrive and multiply in the gaseous formation of Jupiter?