The Drake Equation

[enevitable]

For a while here I've seen a lot of posts about how amazing the Earth is, and what an extremely small probability it is for us to exist here.

Well have any of you even heard of the Drake Equation? The Drake Equation IS the probability of us existing here, and we can use it to further estimate how many intelligent civilizations there are per galaxy. Multiply that by the hundred of billions of galaxies in our universe, and we find that we really aren't alone

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might hope to be able to communicate;

and

R^* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy

f_p is the fraction of those stars that have planets

n_e is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

f_ℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point

f_i is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

f_c is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

I mean from even moderate analysis and estimates we find that there may be as many 2-3 intelligent civilizations in each galaxy, thats a staggering number for the entire universe.

http://frombob.to/drake.html

We just aren't that special.

[pavlakos]

i agree with that 100%.

[morphyx]

Then it's a fact. The numbers don't lie. Publish it. I'm certain there will soon be a mathematical equation that will finally prove that God is a myth. After all, it's enevitable.

[enevitable]

Originally Posted by morphyx

Then it's a fact. The numbers don't lie. Publish it. I'm certain there will soon be a mathematical equation that will finally prove that God is a myth. After all, it's enevitable.

Theres no point publishing it, its been out there for a while now. It's those that are too ignorant to do the research that don't know about it.

Don't you ever ask more out of yourself then believing in god Morphyx?

Amounting god as the answer to our universe is nothing more then taking the easy way out; never actually questioning where why and what.

[nitrum]

Yeah, the Drake equation is pretty cool. The only problem I have with it is it makes it look like we know more than we really do. We aren't positive what any of the factors really are, but most of them we have a decent idea.

For example, intelligence is something that has evolved seperately a few evolution. A large portion of intelligence research is focused on birds, because they diverged from mammals a really long time ago. Although they evolved seperately, they arrived at a similar place as many mammals. Many birds have problem solving and abstract thinking abilities, particularly parrots and the crow family. Dolphins are another good example. This leads us to believe that higher intelligence is a likely outcome.

But we don't know if human-type intelligence is common, because we have nothing to compare it to. It could be enormously rare, but we figure that it is probably somewhat likely.

Also, we don't know how many planets would actually make it past single celled organisms. Life first formed very shortly after Earth cooled, but we only had singled celled organisms for 3000 million years. It's only within the last 500 million years that we even had true animals. Perhaps many planets have bacteria, but it is extremely rare to have higher lifeforms. Who knows.

I guess the real point of the Drake equation is saying that any of the factors are kinda pointless. It doesn't matter how rare it is. The Universe is so so so so so so so so so so so big that other intelligent life is enevitable.

[bkadoctaj]

Originally Posted by enevitable

For a while here I've seen a lot of posts about how amazing the Earth is, and what an extremely small probability it is for us to exist here.

Well have any of you even heard of the Drake Equation? The Drake Equation IS the probability of us existing here, and we can use it to further estimate how many intelligent civilizations there are per galaxy. Multiply that by the hundred of billions of galaxies in our universe, and we find that we really aren't alone




I mean from even moderate analysis and estimates we find that there may be as many 2-3 intelligent civilizations in each galaxy, thats a staggering number for the entire universe.

http://frombob.to/drake.html

We just aren't that special.

Science and Nature forum, I'd be willing to presume.

[CosmicSerpent]

The whole concept assumes way too much. We actually know very few of the variables in that equation. None of it is really anything more than an judgment call based on a very limited perspective of the universe. Any statistician would tell you that it's totally bogus because it doesn't rely on solid data, and not all of the possible contributing factors have been accounted for. We think we have a pretty good understanding of the universe, but realistically we barely know the basics. I believe there probably is intelligent life out there somewhere, but it isn't going to be discovered by an irrelevant mathematical formula.

Originally Posted by bkadoctaj

Science and Nature forum, I'd be willing to presume.

I wouldn't really consider it science, but I guess it's nature related.

[44Reasons]

2-3 intellifgent species per galaxy...yeah right.Add a few zero's and they we'll talk.

More like 500-1000(I'm grabbing numbers out my ass)

Here's some Sufi Cosmology

When the features further descend and come out of the limits of the Angelic Realm, foundations of the tangible world of matter are being laid, which is known as Alam-e-Nasoot (parallel to the Tree of Life's sephiroth of Malkuth). It includes the material realm (most of which humans can see), and all the normally visible cosmos is included within it. Nehr-e-Tazheer (Channel of Manifestation) whose last limit is Alam-e-Nasoot, feeds Latifa-e-Nafsi. The Human Realm is categorized as supervised by:

• One Kitab-al-Mubeen, controlling:

• 300 million Loh-e-Mehfooz (Superclusters), each one controlling

• 80 thousand Hazeere (galaxies), each one containing

• 13 billion star systems, out of which

• 1 billion star systems have life on one of their planets.

• Each star has 9, 12 or 13 planets around it.

Just by reading that you could easily pull a million planets with flora and fuana,and out that million one thousand of those planets would have intelligent life.

And they funny thing about it is you did'nt consider the actual planets that are just colonized and not the original birthplace of the so called race thats inhabiting.

[blazedandcrazed]

Originally Posted by enevitable

For a while here I've seen a lot of posts about how amazing the Earth is, and what an extremely small probability it is for us to exist here.

Why would it be an extremely small probablity for us to exist here? sure the conditions here are suit us well and we would perish if they were altered even slightly, but thats because we evolved into those conditions, they were not molded around us. on another another planet, with very diferent conditions, life would be extremely diferent as well.

personally i think that the univerese is fucking loaded with life, its just either out of our (exremely small) reach or too different for us to recognize. a general rule about existence of life is that if there is any possible way at all, eventually it will happen

[Digit]

Originally Posted by enevitable

We just aren't that special.

still pretty fuckin special tho. lol




yeah. i love the drake equation.


to me, it instantly answered the question "are we alone" beyond all doubt.


even more so when i heard of how abundant bio matter is in the universe. HUUUUUUGE clouds of sugar, alcohol and many a plethora of other organic like stuff just floating around out there.
i bet space slugs are real.

i mean, the drake equation is imperfect, and hangs on a few assumptions, but more often than not*, the custom refinements you could attempt to make, actually increase the amount of intelligent life out there.


and there are many ways to skin a drake [equation]. hehe.


like the most BLINDINGLY obvious one..........
all is life.
consciousness is all pervasive.

call it a concept (or "fact") and take it or leave it as you please.



*or could that just be a by-product of the folks likely to be so interested are so interested because some small part of them wants there to be more life out there, and so whether subconsciously or intentionally, the results are skewed in that direction? it should at least be considered [if i'm to make such claims].

[scoobydooby67]

Originally Posted by morphyx

Then it's a fact. The bible doesn't lie. Its been published. I'm certain there is plenty of scripture verses that prove that God exists. After all, it's blind, dumb faith.

fixed.

[JesusC]

Originally Posted by enevitable

Amounting god as the answer to our universe is nothing more then taking the easy way out; never actually questioning where why and what.

...nothing more than taking the easy way out? You obvioulsy have a lot to learn about the concept of 'spiritual' journey.

Even if there are 2-3 civilizations per galaixes, even 2-3 civilizations per solar system....in fact, even if there was life on every single planet that exists within the Universe itself....that wouldnt change how special it is to be alive.

You have to understand this:

I dont believe any living thing within existence can understand the existence itself...in regards to the 'how', the 'what' and the 'why'. I dont believe we will ever figure the whole thing out. I think there will always be questions towards existence for as long as existence exists.

The fact that we are taking part in the great mystery gives meaning to every single living thing that makes its way into existence. We are special because we are part of the existence, whatever it may be.

Think about it...there is no greater mystery than the one that exists simply by looking up to the sky. We are alive within the great mystery, trying hard to figure it out as much as we possibly can before our time is up. There is beauty in the mad rush to understand who we are and why we are here, and everything that takes on the challenge holds a special place within the Universe.

Of course, its all a matter of perspective. You can simplify everything down to science and odds, and come to the conclusion that nothing is special. You can simplify existence to the point where it becomes nothing but mathmatical equations and logical explanations. You could assume that everything is just random chance and pointless occurrences......but why do all that?

I can never simplify existence to the point where it looses all meaning and purpose. If you believe there is meaning to this place, if you believe it has purpose, then you must also believe in a greater power.