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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>UNECE Predicts Robot Explosion
10.20.04 </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left colSpan=2>
By Lance Ulanoff </TD></TR><TR><TD align=left colSpan=2>In a sweeping report that analyzes worldwide robotics industry growth throughout 2003 and compares it with activity in the robotics marked tracked over nearly one-and-a-half decades, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) predicts a steep expansion of demand for industrial robots in 2003 and skyrocketing growth for the consumer- and service-robotics markets between now and 2007.

The 2004 World Robotics Survey, a 414-page report released today, notes that until recently, industrial robotics demand experienced see-saw–like growth—strong one year, flat the next—and had actually peaked in 2001. But the market began swelling again last year, growing 19 percent over 2003. "In 2003, the robot market in North America surged by 28 percent, by close to 25 percent in Japan, and by 4 percent in the European Union," says Jan Karlsson of the UNECE/IFR. (IFR is the International Federation of Robotics.)

Even with economic uncertainty in the U.S. and other markets, the UNECE saw an 18-percent uptick in industrial robot orders in the first half of 2004 over the same period in 2003. The organization puts the number of currently working industrial robots at around 800,000 and predicts 1 million by 2007, with 145,000 of them being in North America.

And while many still consider Japan the hub of robotics activity, the report shows that the Japanese robotics market has been steadily eroding since the mid-1990s and now shows no sign of recovery as momentum moves to Europe and North America. The study also notes that prices per unit for robots are falling while performance—as measured by mechanical and electronic characteristics—continues to improve.
The consumer- and service-robotics industries have taken off far more slowly, but the UNECE also predicts a bright future for home-service robots. "Are we seeing any service robots in our homes? At the end of 2003, about 610,000 autonomous vacuum cleaners and lawn-mowing robots were in operation. In 2004 – 2007, more than 4 million new units are forecasted to be added," says the report.

Especially strong growth is expected in these service robot types: humanoid public-relation robots like the <!-- start ziffarticle //-->ASIMO<!-- end ziffarticle //--> (which greets visitors at Honda's plant in Tokyo), laboratory robots, underwater systems, defense robots (like the iRobot PackBot being employed in Afghanistan and Iraq), rescue and security devices, professional cleaning robots, and multiuse mobile robot platforms. The only dim spot is the projection for Medical robots, which are not expected to do as well as previously anticipated.

By 2007, domestic-service and entertainment robots will represent multibillion-dollar markets, according to the report. Domestic bots like the <!-- start ziffarticle //-->iRobot Roomba<!-- end ziffarticle //--> vacuum and robotic lawn mowers should sell millions of units, creating a $2.7-billion-dollar industry. Entertainment robots like the <!-- start ziffarticle //-->Sony AIBO<!-- end ziffarticle //--> robotic dog will help drive a $2.5-billion industry.

The release of this report comes on the eve of one of the largest robotics conferences in the U.S. to date: RoboNexus in Santa Clara, California. Experts from leading universities like MIT and Caltech, as well as robotics-company representatives and executives on the leading edge of industrial- and consumer-robotics development will meet, talk, and display their newest products and research. We'll have reports from the show floor.

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